The statement we've been waiting for

Whisper it quietly, but Manchester City might actually be back

Is it just me, or has football coverage been more knee-jerk than usual this season?

We’ve had people analysing the league table after just three or four games, champions crowned based on summer signings, other summer signings written off in record time, and wild conclusions being jumped to before matches have even finished.

When Manchester United took the lead at Spurs on Saturday, the commentator on my feed was banging on about how that goal had moved them up to 2nd in the table, despite it only being the first match played that weekend, and the game only being 32 minutes old.

Later, Arsenal’s trip to Sunderland was trailed by someone on TV saying it was an opportunity for the leaders to go “nine points clear” at the top of the league, almost as if Manchester City’s match with Liverpool the following day wouldn’t have had an impact on the distance between 1st and 2nd one way or another.

With the weekend’s fixtures now completed, United are 7th and Arsenal are only four points clear of City - two facts which underline the pointlessness of counting chickens before they’ve hatched, but probably won’t stop people continuing to say more irrelevant things in the coming weeks and months.

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To be fair, I’ve been guilty of knee-jerking this season, too. After City’s defeat at Aston Villa a couple of weeks ago, I concluded that they might as well forget about winning the Premier League title, since they weren’t going to be consistent enough to reel in an Arsenal side which didn’t look like conceding goals, never mind dropping points.

Thankfully, if Pep Guardiola and his players read my drivel, they opted to take no notice of it, because they have since gone on to string three very impressive wins together, against Bournemouth, Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool respectively (not forgetting the win at Swansea in the Carabao, too).

It’s hard to imagine a more perfect response to that setback at Villa Park. The fixture list rather favourably afforded City three consecutive home games, but they were three games against very challenging opponents whom City didn’t just beat but authoritatively swatted aside. Sunday’s win over Liverpool was probably their best performance of the last 12 to 18 months, and the clearest sign yet that they might be back to something approaching bizness.

I say “something approaching” because as good as they have been in the last few games, it still feels like they are a work in progress, and the best is hopefully yet to come. They momentarily let Bournemouth back into the game last weekend, there was a point at 3-1 against Dortmund where I started getting PTSD from last season’s capitulation against Feyenoord, and Liverpool had a couple of chances in the second half on Sunday that were far too close for comfort.

City are lethal in attack and defending well, but they aren’t fully controlling games in the way Pep Guardiola would probably like them to, and there’s still plenty of room for improvement.

Then again, as Arsenal perhaps demonstrated at Sunderland, controlling games and keeping clean sheets is often easier said than done at this level, and we have far more reasons to be encouraged by where City are at than concerned by what they perhaps lack.

What they have is a striker in Erling Haaland who looks like scoring every time he steps onto the pitch, and indeed has only stepped onto the pitch twice for City this season and not found the net. Even missing a penalty didn’t faze him on Sunday, and his overall contribution to the team’s play is currently better than ever.

What they also have is a precocious young talent in Jérémy Doku who, after a couple of tentative seasons at the club, is now looking like a potentially world class player. Every time he gets on the ball he looks positive and dangerous, and his performance against Liverpool was without exaggeration one of the best individual displays I have ever seen from a Premier League player.

They also have Phil Foden coming back to the boil a little bit more each game, and a midfielder in Nico González who doesn’t just look like a decent deputy for Rodri, but someone who could genuinely keep his compatriot out of the team in future. And when Rodri finally is fit enough to properly rejoin the action, City have a recent Ballon d’Or winner to add into the mix, plus a few recent signings whose full impact is still yet to be felt.

City also have a settled back four, with Rúben Dias in particular looking once again like the defensive enforcer he was a couple of years ago, and two midfielders playing at full-back and pretty much redefining the position as they go. One of those full-backs is up there with the most technically gifted players in the country, and Nico O’Reilly isn’t bad either.

And all of that goodness is reinforced by a goalkeeper who commands his area like it’s the navy, and can be relied upon to make brilliant saves when needed.

It’s all looking pretty fucking good, especially since Pep Guardiola - who celebrated his 1,000th game in management on Sunday - seems to have had his creativity revitalised this season. Just look at what he’s doing with O’Reilly’s full-back-cum-centre-forward positioning, or the havoc he has caused in recent games by having Doku move further inside. It seems like simple stuff, but it’s only made to look simple because Pep had the idea to do it.

They weren’t facing a vintage or even particularly good Liverpool side on Sunday, but City were still up against the reigning champions, and it was a perfect opportunity to make a major statement, with the world watching. They began the game on the front foot and didn’t let up until the points were in the bag. Missing a penalty didn’t disrupt their rhythm, nor did Virgil van Dijk’s disallowed goal, and when the storm came, they weathered it and came up smelling of roses. I can’t imagine many Arsenal fans will have enjoyed watching how it unfolded.

Of course, Liverpool can’t lose a big game without it being mired in some kind of controversy, and the tedious debates around the disallowed goal have slightly detracted from City’s achievement. I doubt I would have been too upset had that goal stood, because shit happens, but if Andy Robertson has to duck out of the way to allow the ball to go in, surely his offside positioning has to be taken into account? If he doesn’t duck and the ball hits him on its way in, he’s offside. For me, it’s as simple as that, and “Robbo’s” non-celebration spoke volumes.

But what Arne Slot, Liverpool’s players and fans and everybody else knows is that City thoroughly deserved to win that game either way, and Liverpool have bigger problems than subjective refereeing decisions going against them.

I don’t think it’s too knee-jerky to say that, barring major improvements in all areas, the champions are pretty much out of the title picture already, and it will therefore be between City and Arsenal, with four points currently separating 1st and 2nd.

The concern from City’s point of view is that this international break has come at an inopportune time, and could slow the momentum they have built up in the last few games. When they come back they’ll face Newcastle away and then Leeds at home, and could really do with picking up another six points, with Arsenal hosting Spurs and then travelling to Chelsea in their equivalent fixtures.

City can’t directly influence what Arsenal do until the two sides meet at the Etihad in April, six games from the end of the season. But they can keep the pressure on Mikel Arteta’s side by consistently playing well and winning games, and it’s a challenge this newly refreshed City will relish.

I was wrong to be so downbeat about City’s title chances a couple of weeks ago. It’s a good job they’re made of sterner stuff than me, and it’s wonderful to have them back.

Dan

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